You are here

Election Predictions - 2012

Less than 12 hours before the polls officially open for the 2012 General Election, predictions abound. Joining the myriad of other amateurs, I will publicly announce my expectation that former Governor Mitt Romney will become America's next President.

For those keeping score, I expect Romney to win the Electoral Count 315-223 and win the Popular Vote by 4-5%.

See my Real Clear Politics Map

I make this prediction based on the following:

1) Current polling info suggest that the race is a dead-heat around 48%. No incumbent has won re-election with a below 50% approval. Likewise, with all things equal, undecided voters (who do vote) usually break for the challenger.

2) Most polling that shows the dead-heat or slight Obama lead is basing their outcome, not on their actual data, but on the weights within their models. On average, the Obama-favoring polls assume a 2008 or higher Democrat advantage in turnout. Some, such as a recent CBS poll, assume an 11% Democrat advantage to represent a tied race.

3) You can usually determine who is winning based on where you are playing on the field. At the end of this race, the Obama campaign had no expectation to be having to compete in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. If based on their internal polling they are indeed having to compete to hold their flank in these previously-thought settled states, their supposed "firewall" (Ohio) has likely already fallen and the real question is the measure of their defeat!

I would love to hear your comments / thoughts.

Note: Regardless, the separation of opinion that has led up to this election guarantees that one side or the other is REALLY wrong. There will be plenty of recollection & review in store for the losing side because they will have severely misread America's voting public!